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"Though we have acheived progress, our work is not over. That is why I support the mission of the Arms Control Association. It is, quite simply, the most effective and important organization working in the field today." 

– Larry Weiler
Former U.S.-Russian arms control negotiator
August 7, 2018
June 2023
Edition Date: 
Thursday, June 1, 2023
Cover Image: 

ChatGPT Sparks U.S. Debate Over Military Use of AI


June 2023
By Michael Klare and Chris Rostampour

The release of ChatGPT and other “generative” artificial intelligence (AI) systems has triggered intense debate in the U.S. Congress and among the public over the benefits and risks of commercializing these powerful but error-prone technologies.

Sam Altman of OpenAI testified before a U.S. Senate subcommittee in May about the promise and dangers of ChatGPT, a “generative” artificial intelligence system. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)Proponents argue that by rapidly utilizing such systems, the United States will acquire a significant economic and military advantage over China and other competing powers. But many experts warn that the premature release of such potent but untested technologies could lead to catastrophic consequences and so the systems should be constrained by rules and regulations.

Generative AI systems employ sophisticated algorithms to convert vast amounts of raw data into texts, images, and other content that seem to be produced by humans. It is thought to have widespread application in industrial, business, and military operations.

The potentially disruptive consequences of exploiting generative AI technologies for commercial and geopolitical advantage and the accompanying need for new laws in the area provoked heated discussion at a hearing of the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Privacy, Technology, and the Law on May 16.

The lead witness, Sam Altman of OpenAI, the San Francisco startup responsible for ChatGPT, highlighted the technology’s great promise, but also warned of its inherent defects, such as a tendency to produce false or misleading results. “If this technology goes wrong, it can go quite wrong,” he told the subcommittee. “[W]e want to work with the government to prevent that from happening.”

Many analysts are particularly worried about the hasty application of advanced AI in the military realm, where the consequences of things going wrong could prove especially catastrophic.

Lawmakers and senior Pentagon officials who seek to apply these technologies as rapidly as possible argue that this approach will provide the United States with a distinct advantage over China and other rivals. But concerns have emerged in these circles over the premature application of AI to military use. Although officials believe that AI utilization by the military will enhance U.S. combat capabilities, many worry about the potential for accidents, enemy interference, and other dangerous unintended outcomes and so favor the cautious, regulated utilization of AI.

“To stay ahead of our potential adversaries…we need to identify key technologies and integrate them into our systems and processes faster than they can,” Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), chair of the Senate Armed Services cybersecurity subcommittee, said during an April 19 hearing on AI use by the Defense Department. But, he added, “the applications deployed must be more secure and trusted, meaning we [must adopt] more rigorous policy enforcement mechanisms to prevent misuse or unintended use.”

Witnesses at the April 19 hearing, including officials of leading defense contractors making use of AI, emphasized the need to adopt AI swiftly to avoid being overtaken by China and Russia in this critically important area. But under questioning, they acknowledged that the hasty application of AI to military systems entailed significant risk.

Josh Lospinoso of Shift5, for example, warned that the data used in training the algorithms employed in generative AI systems “can be altered by nefarious actors” and also are vulnerable to “spoofing” by potential adversaries. “We need to think clearly about shoring up those security vulnerabilities in our AI algorithms before we deploy these broadly,” he said.

Manchin indicated that, for these and other reasons, Congress must acquire a better understanding of the risks posed by the Pentagon’s utilization of AI and develop appropriate guardrails. He asked for the witnesses’ help in “looking at how we would write legislation not to repeat the mistakes of the past,” alluding to congressional failure to impose such controls on social media and the internet.

Judging by his comments and those of his colleagues, any legislation that emerges from Manchin’s subcommittee is likely to incorporate measures intended to ensure the reliability of the data used in training complex algorithms and to prevent unauthorized access to these systems by hostile actors.

Other lawmakers have sought to write legislation aimed at preventing another danger arising from the hasty and misguided application of AI by the military: the possibility that AI-enabled autonomous weapons systems, or “robot generals,” will someday acquire the capacity to launch nuclear weapons.

The Defense Department currently is modernizing its nuclear command, control, and communications systems, including through the widespread integration of advanced AI systems. Some analysts fear that this process will dilute human control over nuclear launch decision-making. (See ACT, April 2020.)

To ensure that machines never replace humans in this momentous role, a bipartisan group of legislators introduced the Block Nuclear Launch by Autonomous Artificial Intelligence Act on April 26. If enacted, the law would prohibit the use of federal funds to “use an autonomous weapons system that is not subject to meaningful human control…to launch a nuclear weapon; or…to select or engage targets for the purposes of launching a nuclear weapon.”

In the House, the legislation was introduced by Ted Lieu (D-Calif.) and co-sponsored by Don Beyer (D-Va.) and Ken Buck (R-Colo.). A companion bill was introduced in the Senate on May 1 by Edward Markey (D-Mass.) and co-sponsors Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), Bernie Sanders (I-Vt), and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).

Lieu said that passage of the bill “will ensure that no matter what happens in the future, a human being has control over the employment of a nuclear weapon, not a robot. AI can never be a substitute for human judgment when it comes to launching nuclear weapons.”

In the U.S. Congress and among the public, there are rising questions about the benefits and risks of commercializing these powerful but error-prone technologies, including in the military sphere.

North Korea Vows Response to U.S.-South Korean Plans


June 2023
By Kelsey Davenport

North Korea said it will take decisive action in response to the decision by the United States and South Korea to enhance their nuclear deterrence consultations and called it a product of hostile policy toward Pyongyang.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol (R) shakes hands with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida during their meeting at the presidential office in Seoul on May 7, ahead of the Group of Seven summit in Hiroshima. (Photo by Jung Yeon-Je/Pool/Getty Images)U.S. President Joe Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol announced on April 26 the formulation of the Nuclear Consultative Group and a more regular deployment of U.S. strategic assets around the Korean peninsula to counter the threat posed by North Korea’s growing nuclear weapons program. The group will give South Korea more opportunities to discuss and provide input on U.S. nuclear and strategic planning. (See ACT, May 2023.)

In an April 28 statement in the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), Kim Yo Jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, accused the United States and South Korea of creating an environment in which North Korea is “compelled to take more decisive action” to deal with new threats.

If the United States and South Korea are “dead set on staging nuclear war exercises” and deploying nuclear assets, “the stronger the exercise of [North Korea’s] right to self-defense will become,” she said. She said North Korea is “convinced once again” that the country’s “nuclear war deterrent” should be “brought to further perfection.”

Kim Yo Jong criticized Biden directly for threatening to end the North Korean regime if it were to use nuclear weapons against the United States, its allies, or its partners. Biden made the comment during the April 26 press conference with Yoon. Kim called the comment “threatening rhetoric” and accused Biden of overconfidence.

Yoon has sought greater South Korean involvement in the U.S. extended nuclear deterrent, but he faced criticism in South Korea for agreeing to the Washington Declaration that resulted from his summit with Biden. Factions within Yoon’s conservative party accused him of tying Seoul’s hands on developing its own nuclear weapons by reaffirming the country’s commitment to the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and expressing “full confidence” in U.S. extended deterrence in the declaration. Policymakers in the opposition party said the agreed measures raise tensions with North Korea without alleviating South Korea’s security concerns.

Yoon continues to defend the Washington Declaration as necessary to counter the North Korean threat. In a May 2 cabinet meeting, he said the consultative group “upgraded” the U.S.-South Korean alliance and will make U.S. extended deterrence more effective.

Unsurprisingly, China and Russia also criticized the Washington Declaration and accused the United States of being the source of regional tension.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in an April 28 statement that the decision to form the consultative group “is clearly destabilizing in nature” and will have “negative consequences for regional security.” She accused the United States of provoking an arms race.

At an April 27 press conference, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said that the U.S.-South Korean decision stokes confrontation and “undermines the nuclear nonproliferation system.” She said Washington’s actions are “the very opposite of the goal to denuclearize” the Korean peninsula.

But Yoon faulted Beijing for not doing enough to respond to Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program. He said on May 2 that if China wishes to “raise objections,” it must do more to reduce the nuclear threat posed by North Korea “or at the very least abide by UN Security Council resolutions” and sanctions.

Mao said in a May 4 press briefing that China supports “fully and accurately” implementing all provisions of UN Security Council resolutions, including support for dialogue and humanitarian assistance. She said the United States “has yet to respond to [North Korea’s] legitimate security concerns” and that a “balanced approach” is necessary to mitigate tensions.

A May 19 statement by the Group of Seven (G-7) industrialized nations also called for sanctions on North Korea to be “fully and scrupulously” implemented and “remain in place for as long as” the country’s weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programs exist. The statement demanded that North Korea “refrain from any other destabilizing or provocative actions, including any further nuclear tests or launches that use ballistic missile technology.”

Prior to the G-7 meeting, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida met Yoon in South Korea on May 7. They agreed to further enhance security cooperation and to link South Korean and Japanese missile tracking through the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. Connecting the radars tracking North Korean missile launches will help fill gaps in missile detection and share data in real time.

Yoon was criticized at home for meeting Kishida due to the lingering animosity between the two countries stemming from Japan’s wartime occupation of South Korea. But Yoon defended his decision, asserting that “Japan and South Korea are facing a grave security situation” that requires cooperation before “past issues are fully resolved.”

Kishida said the two leaders agreed on the “importance of enhancing deterrence and response capabilities,” including through security cooperation between “Japan and South Korea and among Japan, South Korea, [and] the [United States] in the face of ongoing provocations by North Korea and attempts to unilaterally change the status quo through force in this region.”

North Korea said it will take decisive action in response to the decision by the United States and South Korea to enhance their nuclear deterrence consultations.

Russian Use of Nuclear Weapons Still Unlikely, U.S. Says


June 2023
By Shannon Bugos

Ahead of a widely expected counteroffensive by Ukraine in its war with Russia, the U.S. intelligence community continues to assert that the likelihood of Russian President Vladimir Putin using nuclear weapons in the war remains low.

Chairman Jack Reed (D-RI) greets Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines before she testifies at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on worldwide threats on May 4 in Washington. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)“It is very unlikely” that Russia would employ nuclear weapons, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told Congress during a May 4 hearing.

Gen. Scott Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, who also testified at the hearing, agreed with Haines, but added that, “in the nature of conflict, there is always that possibility” of nuclear weapons use.

The assessment followed Russia’s suspension in February of the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), the last Russian-U.S. nuclear arms control agreement still standing. (See ACT, March 2023.) Moscow has conditioned a resumption of the treaty and its associated activities, such as on-site inspections and detailed data exchanges, on Washington withdrawing support from Kyiv.

“Russia’s decision to suspend the [New] START may be reversible,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in an April 20 statement. “However, for this, the United States must show political will and abandon its aggressive policy of undermining the security of our country, taking practical steps towards a real de-escalation.”

Despite the Russian suspension, the United States has continued to provide broad unclassified data on its strategic nuclear arsenal. In this year’s first biannual data exchange, Washington reported that it deploys 1,419 warheads on 662 delivery vehicles, roughly the same data as in September. (See ACT, November 2022.)

“The United States continues to view transparency among nuclear weapon states as extremely valuable for reducing the likelihood of misperception, miscalculation, and costly arms competitions,” the State Department said in a statement accompanying the publication of the data on May 12.

Russia and the United States have emphasized that they will continue to adhere to an ongoing 1988 Soviet-U.S. agreement that requires the two nations to exchange notifications of launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Russia also expressed its intention to continue adhering to a 1989 Soviet-U.S. agreement that requires advance notification of major strategic exercises.

In mid-April, Russia announced a successful test of what the Russian Defense Ministry described as an “advanced” ground-based ICBM from the Kapustin Yar test site, with the training warhead hitting a mock target at the Sary-Shagan test site in Kazakhstan. (See ACT, May 2023.) The ministry said that the test was intended to “confirm the correctness of the circuit design and technical solutions” for the missile.

The ministry did not specify the type of ICBM, but experts suggest the test featured a nuclear-capable Sarmat ICBM.

On April 19, the United States tested a Minuteman III ICBM equipped with a reentry vehicle at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. The Air Force said it traveled about 4,200 miles to the Kwajalein Atoll in the Marshall Islands. “This test launch reinforces what our allies and partners already know: We’re always ready to defend the United States with combat ready nuclear forces anytime, anywhere, on order, to conduct global strike,” stated Gen. Thomas Bussiere, commander of Air Force Global Strike Command.

Ahead of a widely expected counteroffensive by Ukraine in its war with Russia, the U.S. intelligence community continues to assert that the likelihood of Russian President Vladimir Putin using nuclear weapons in the war remains low. 

TPNW Working Groups Advance Treaty Implementation


June 2023
By Gabriela Iveliz Rosa Hernández

A newly established scientific advisory group for the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) met for the first time in March and elected Zia Mian and Patricia Lewis as co-chairs. Mian is a physicist and director of Princeton University’s Program on Science and Global Security. Lewis leads the International Security Program at Chatham House.

The group of 15 nuclear weapons experts was nominated by TPNW states-parties and appointed by Juan Ramon de la Fuente Ramirez of Mexico, the president-designate of the second meeting of states-parties, which is scheduled for Nov. 27-Dec. 1. The group was established during the first meeting of state-parties in 2022 with the purpose of reporting on the latest cutting-edge research on nuclear weapons, including the humanitarian consequences of nuclear weapons use and nuclear disarmament verification. (See ACT, July/August 2022.)

Meanwhile, experts and states-parties from the TPNW informal working group on the elimination of nuclear weapons, led by Mexico and New Zealand, met in February and March to discuss pathways toward verifying the elimination of such weapons.

According to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, the verification issue and other questions also will be studied by the scientific advisory group. The second meeting of TPNW states-parties, in New York this fall, will assess the progress made in accordance with the nuclear ban treaty’s implementation. Some 68 countries have ratified the TPNW.

A newly established scientific advisory group for the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) met for the first time in March and elected Zia Mian and Patricia Lewis as co-chairs.

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