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“[My time at ACA] prepared me very well for the position that I took following that with the State Department, where I then implemented and helped to implement many of the policies that we tried to promote.”
– Peter Crail
Business Executive for National Security
June 2, 2022
Daryl Kimball

On NSA Advisor Jake Sullivan’s Address at the ACA’s Annual Meeting on “Reducing Nuclear Dangers in a Time of Peril"

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"More nuclear weapons make every person in every nation less secure."

Statement by Daryl G. Kimball, Executive Director

(WASHINGTON, D.C.)—At the June 2, 2023 Arms Control Association annual conference, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan delivered a timely address (online here) detailing the Biden administration’s vision to head off nuclear weapons competition and advance arms control at a time of increasing nuclear peril.

Due to a decade of inaction on nuclear disarmament, noncompliance with key arms control agreements and norms, Russia's disastrous war on Ukraine, and rising U.S.-China tensions, we are on the verge of a dangerous three-way arms race that no one can win. In the coming months, we look forward to working alongside the Biden administration as it puts its vision of pursuing effective nuclear arms control and risk reduction efforts among nuclear-weapon states into action.

We encourage President Biden and his team to reinforce Mr. Sullivan’s remarks by asserting that more nuclear weapons make every person in every nation less secure, as well as emphasizing that the United States will exercise prudent nuclear restraint, persistently pursue disarmament diplomacy, and work together with the other major nuclear-armed states to achieve their collective nuclear disarmament responsibilities.

We hope President Biden will pursue a whole of government approach to rallying global opinion around the ongoing need for all five nuclear-armed states under the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to adhere to their treaty obligations to "pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament.” Failure to do so risks a global arms race and the eventual unraveling of the NPT.

Therefore, the Biden administration should make a concerted and sustained effort to urge the leaders of China, France, and the United Kingdom to agree to freeze the size of their nuclear arsenals as long as Russia and the United States meet their most basic disarmament responsibilities. While not eliminating the threat of nuclear war, such a global freeze would increase the chances of engaging China in arms control at the multilateral level and improve chances for progress on overdue, ambitious nuclear risk reduction and disarmament measures.

Unfortunately, as Russia wages a brutal war against Ukraine, the negotiation of a complex new bilateral nuclear arms control agreement to replace New START before its expiration in early 2026 is untenable. However, as Mr. Sullivan made clear, it is not in either country’s interest to engage in a costly and dangerous nuclear arms race.

To head off that possibility, we implore Russian President Vladimir Putin to shift gears and accept President Biden’s offer to engage in a dialogue on what follows New START. At the same time, the Biden administration should pursue a robust, diplomatic push for the United States and Russia to conclude a unilateral, reciprocal arrangement – verified with national technical means of intelligence – that commits the two countries to not exceeding the deployed strategic warhead limit of 1,550 set by New START until a more permanent arms control arrangement comes into effect.

Mr. Sullivan was smart to push back on the extreme proposals from the Dr. Strangelove caucus in Congress calling for the United States to withdraw from New START and to begin building up the U.S. nuclear arsenal. This would neither advance U.S. national security interests nor increase U.S. negotiating leverage vis-à-vis Russia. Rather, such actions would lend credence to Putin’s cynical disinformation campaign about who carries blame for the breakdown of nuclear arms control, further escalate already high tensions with a dangerous Russia, and undoubtedly encourage China to ramp up its efforts to expand and diversify its nuclear arsenal and undermine the security of U.S. allies in Europe and Asia.

At the same time, we urge the Biden administration to go further and make it clear that, for the foreseeable future, the United States will not and need not increase the size of its current nuclear deployed strategic nuclear arsenal – an arsenal that already far exceeds in number and destructive capability what is necessary to hold a sufficient number of adversary military assets at risk to deter an enemy nuclear attack.

At last year’s ACA Annual meeting, President Biden wrote in a message: “Today—perhaps more than any other time since the Cold War—we must work to reduce the risk of an arms race or nuclear escalation. In this time of intense geopolitical tension, arms control and nonproliferation diplomacy continues to be an essential part of safeguarding … global security.” We still wholeheartedly agree with this statement.

So long as the Russian war on Ukraine rages on, there will be a heightened risk of further nuclear threats from Russia. Going forward, we urge President Biden and his team to work with other responsible states, those with and without nuclear weapons, to push back and to reinforce the nuclear taboo against any and all nuclear threats, not just those issued by Russia in the context of its war on Ukraine.

Rather than attempt to distinguish between responsible and irresponsible nuclear threats, we encourage President Biden to reaffirm the statement he and other leaders (including Mr. Modi of India, Mr. Xi of China, and Mr. Kishida of Japan) issued at the G-20 Summit in Bali, Indonesia that: “nuclear weapons use and threats of use are inadmissable.” Because a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.

U.S. leadership on nuclear arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament has always proven essential to reducing and eliminating the nuclear danger. With the danger of nuclear arms racing and nuclear war rising, President Biden, backed by Congress, must jumpstart nuclear disarmament diplomacy and push back on threats of nuclear weapons use. There is no more important responsibility for a U.S. president in the nuclear age.

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"We encourage President Biden and his team to reinforce Mr. Sullivan’s remarks by asserting that more nuclear weapons make every person in every nation less secure, as well as emphasizing that the United States will exercise prudent nuclear restraint, persistently pursue disarmament diplomacy, and work together with the other major nuclear-armed states to achieve their collective nuclear disarmament responsibilities."

 

Countering Nuclear Extremism With Prudent Restraint


June 2023
By Daryl G. Kimball

The decades-long effort to halt and reverse an arms race involving the world’s deadliest weapons may soon number among the casualties of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked invasion of independent, non-nuclear Ukraine and his increasingly reckless nuclear threats.

Russian intercontinental ballistic missile rolls along Red Square during a military parade on June 24, 2020 in Moscow. (Photo by Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images)Over the apparent objections of his own foreign ministry and defense advisers, Putin announced in February that Russia will “suspend” implementation of the last remaining bilateral treaty capping U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear arsenals, the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START). The Russian Foreign Ministry blamed the United States for undermining talks to resolve differences over New START with its “hostile policy towards Russia.”

Russia will no longer share detailed data on its nuclear stockpile or allow the resumption of on-site inspections, but the Kremlin says it will comply with the central limits of New START, which is set to expire in less than three years. If the two sides fail to negotiate new arrangements to supersede or succeed the treaty, there will be no limits on the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals for the first time since 1972.

Without New START, which restricts each side to no more than 1,550 strategic warheads deployed on 700 delivery vehicles, Moscow and Washington could quickly double the size of their nuclear arsenals by uploading additional warheads on ballistic missiles.

U.S. President Joe Biden has made it clear consistently that his administration stands “ready to expeditiously negotiate a new arms control framework to replace New START when it expires in 2026. But negotiation requires a willing partner operating in good faith.”

The United States, its allies, and many other states have strongly condemned Putin’s suspension of New START and called on Russia to change course. At its summit in May, the Group of Seven industrialized countries declared that “[t]he overall decline in global nuclear arsenals achieved since the end of the Cold War must continue” and called on Russia to engage in substantive discussions in line with its nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) disarmament obligations.

As with Russia, the United States has its own contingent of nuclear weapons extremists. In mid-May, a loud group in Congress, led by Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), introduced legislation that calls for the United States to withdraw from New START, increase the size of its already massive nuclear arsenal, and would only allow a future treaty with Russia if it restricts all types of nuclear warheads and if China is included.

Such action to stop implementation of New START or to withdraw from the treaty entirely would neither advance U.S. interests nor increase U.S. negotiating leverage vis-à-vis Russia. Rather, it would lend credence to Putin’s cynical disinformation campaign about who carries blame for the breakdown of nuclear arms control, further escalate already high tensions with a dangerous Russia, undoubtedly encourage China to ramp up its efforts to expand and diversify its nuclear arsenal; and undermine the security of U.S. allies in Europe and Asia. It might even trigger the unraveling of the NPT itself.

Cotton is among those who seem to believe that, in order to deter a Russian or Chinese nuclear attack, the United States must grow its nuclear arsenal to a size greater than the combined Russian and Chinese arsenals. But he is wrong.

First of all, the size and diversity of the current U.S. nuclear arsenal still exceeds in number and in destructive capability what is necessary to hold a sufficient number of adversary military assets at risk so as to deter an enemy nuclear attack. Fielding even more nuclear weapons will not produce a more stable balance of nuclear terror.

In addition, as U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin noted in December, “[N]uclear deterrence isn’t just a numbers game. In fact, that sort of thinking can spur a dangerous arms race.” After all, as history shows, arms races are very costly and very dangerous and do not produce any winners.

Rather than take dangerous actions that accelerate dangerous nuclear competition, the United States must exercise prudent nuclear restraint. Most importantly, the United States could seek an executive agreement or simply a reciprocal unilateral arrangement verified with national technical means of intelligence that commits Russia and the United States to respecting New START’s central limits until a more permanent arms control arrangement is concluded.

At the same time, world leaders should urge China, France, and the United Kingdom to freeze the size of their nuclear arsenals as long as Russia and the United States meet their most fundamental disarmament responsibility, which is to engage in good faith negotiations to halt and reverse the nuclear arms race.

Preventing nuclear arms racing, nuclear proliferation, and nuclear war must be a global endeavor, but there is no substitute for commonsense U.S. leadership to reduce the nuclear danger.

The decades-long effort to halt and reverse an arms race involving the world’s deadliest weapons may soon number among the casualties of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked invasion of independent, non-nuclear Ukraine and his increasingly reckless nuclear threats.

G-7 Leaders Confront Human Cost of Nuclear War


June 2023
By Daryl G. Kimball

The leaders of the Group of Seven (G-7) industrialized nations opened their three-day summit May 19-21 with a joint visit to the museum in Hiroshima documenting the devastation caused by the surprise U.S. atomic attack on Aug. 6, 1945, and paid tribute to the hundreds of thousands of victims of the bombing.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, speaking against the backdrop of the Cenotaph for Atomic Bomb Victims and the Atomic Bomb Dome in the Peace Memorial Park on May 21, hosted the Group of Seven leaders’ summit at Hiroshima with the intent of elevating attention to the dangers of nuclear war. (Photo by Kimimasa Mayama/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)Later that day, they issued the first-ever G-7 joint statement on nuclear disarmament matters, which “underscored the importance of the 77-year record of non-use of nuclear weapons” and reaffirmed their “commitment to achieving a world without nuclear weapons with undiminished security for all.”

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who represents a Hiroshima constituency, chose the city as the location of the meeting to elevate nuclear disarmament on the global agenda at a time when global leaders and experts are warning of growing nuclear dangers.

“Conveying the reality of the nuclear attack is important as a starting point for all nuclear disarmament efforts.” Kishida told reporters on May 15, ahead of the summit.

But concerns have been building. As UN Secretary-General António Guterres said at the 2022 review conference of the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), “Today, humanity is just one misunderstanding, one miscalculation away from nuclear annihilation.” Last November, after Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to use all means at his disposal to defend Russia and the territory it seized in Ukraine, U.S. President Joe Biden declared that the world faced the most dangerous nuclear moment since the Cuban missile crisis.

Kishida and his wife, Yuko, greeted the other G-7 leaders as they arrived at the city's Peace Memorial Park and ushered them into the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Museum. According to the Japanese government, Kishida and Hiroshima Mayor Kazumi Matsui explained the exhibits, and the leaders heard the firsthand account of 85-year-old atomic bomb survivor Keiko Ogura.

Following a 40-minute tour, the G-7 leaders and Charles Michel and Ursula von der Leyen of the European Union filed out silently. They laid wreaths in honor of the atomic bomb victims at the cenotaph memorial, which contains the names of all 333,907 people whose deaths have been attributed to the Aug. 6 atomic bombing. Matsui read the memorial inscription, which says, “Let all the souls here rest in peace, for we shall not repeat the evil.”

According to the White House, Biden wrote in the museum guestbook, “May the stories of this Museum remind us all of our obligations to build a future of peace. Together—let us continue to make progress toward the day when we can finally and forever rid the world of nuclear weapons. Keep the faith!”

Although the summit discussions focused on countering Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the group’s concerns about China’s growing economic and military influence, host country Japan succeeded in elevating the issue of nuclear disarmament on the G-7 agenda.

The most tangible result was the “G-7 Leaders’ Hiroshima Vision on Nuclear Disarmament” statement, which reaffirms their commitment to key NPT principles and criticizes China and Russia for undermining those principles.

Despite the powerful reminders of the horror of nuclear war, the statement fell short of the occasion and did not advance major new proposals or commitments designed to reverse dangerous trends, let alone achieve disarmament.

In contrast to a statement adopted at the Group of 20 leaders’ summit in November, which bluntly said that “nuclear weapons use and threats of use are inadmissible” and which at the time was endorsed by the G-7 states, the G-7 leaders in Hiroshima targeted their words more narrowly, choosing to condemn nuclear use and threats of use only by Russia in relation to its war on Ukraine.

The statement faulted “Russia’s irresponsible nuclear rhetoric, undermining of arms control regimes, and stated intent to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus [as] dangerous and unacceptable.”

Japan had aimed for more. In January, Kishida told French President Emmanuel Macron that the leaders must “demonstrate a firm commitment to absolutely reject the threat or use of nuclear weapons.” Instead, they declared that “threats by Russia of nuclear weapons use, let alone any use of nuclear weapons by Russia, in the context of its aggression against Ukraine are inadmissible.”

The caveat was a result of the fact that the G-7, which includes three nuclear-armed states and four other states in defense alliances with the nuclear-armed states, exercise military strategies that involve the potential use of nuclear weapons in extreme circumstances or in retaliation for a nuclear attack. “Our security policies,” the statement says, “are based on the understanding that nuclear weapons, for as long as they exist, should serve defensive purposes, deter aggression and prevent war and coercion.”

The statement also urged that “[t]he overall decline in global nuclear arsenals achieved since the end of the Cold War must continue and not be reversed” and encouraged others to adopt nuclear stockpile transparency measures. It called on “China and Russia to engage substantively in relevant multilateral and bilateral forums, in line with their obligations under the NPT, including Article VI.” That article commits states-parties to “pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament.”

The leaders reiterated support for “the immediate commencement of long overdue negotiations of a treaty banning the production of fissile material for use in nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices,” but failed to spell out a new strategy to break the diplomatic logjam at the Conference on Disarmament that has blocked these talks for years.

The leaders repeated the quarter-century-old refrain that bringing the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty into force “is another urgent matter.” The United States is one of eight countries that still must ratify the 1996 agreement.

In a reference to North Korea’s advancing nuclear and missile programs and Iran’s growing capability to enrich uranium absent a return to compliance with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the leaders declared that “[a] world without nuclear weapons cannot be achieved without nuclear non-proliferation.”

Daniel Hogsta, interim executive director of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, who was in Hiroshima with other civil society disarmament campaigners, welcomed Kishida's effort to focus attention on the risks of nuclear weapons, but criticized the statement for its lack of new proposals.

“Simply pointing fingers at Russia and China is insufficient,” Hogsta said on May 21. “We need the G-7 countries, which all either possess, host, or endorse the use of nuclear weapons, to step up and engage the other nuclear powers in disarmament talks if we are to reach [the] goal of a world without nuclear weapons.”

Representatives of the hibakusha were even less satisfied. “Nuclear weapons are an absolute evil that cannot coexist with humans,” said Jiro Hamasumi, an assistant secretary-general of the Japan Confederation of A- and H-Bomb Sufferers Organizations, at a May 21 press conference. “As a survivor of an atomic bombing, I am outraged,” he said, referring to the fact that the statement did not mention the survivors and backed the concept of nuclear deterrence.

Hiroshi Harada, a hibakusha and a former director of the sufferers’ organization, told National Public Radio that museum exhibits cannot possibly tell the whole story. “If we were to reproduce the situation of that time, no one, including myself, would be able to enter the museum,” he said.

Harada said he read the messages left by the leaders after their visit “but they were superficial. What we expect is not only their messages, but also their actions, after they return to their own countries.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (C, Rear) joins Group of Seven (G-7) world leaders on the final day of the G-7 Summit on May 21 in Hiroshima, Japan. (Photo by Stefan Rousseau-WPA Pool/Getty Images)In a joint appeal coordinated by the European Leadership Network and the Asia Pacific Leadership Network, more than 250 civil society leaders from more than 50 countries, including 26 former foreign and defense ministers and six former heads of state, called on Russia and the United States “to compartmentalize nuclear arms control.”

The group urged Moscow and Washington to pledge “that they will not exceed the [New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty] New START limits on deployed nuclear forces,” which thus far have not been violated, and pursue “good faith negotiations on a successor framework for New START before its expiration in 2026.”

At Kishida’s initiative, other key global leaders, including from Australia, Brazil, nuclear-armed India, Indonesia, and South Korea, joined the summit and visited the atomic bomb museum. Guterres also participated.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo told The Asahi Shimbun on May 18, “The Indonesian position is clear and firm. Nuclear weapons must be destroyed because they are a threat in the world.” Indonesia and Brazil are supporters of the 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, which was not referenced in any official G-7 statement.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, another invitee, used the visit to seek further Western military aid to thwart Russia's assault on his country. He thanked Biden and other G-7 leaders for their support, including plans for the transfer of U.S.-made F-16 jets. Biden recently pledged to help train Ukrainian pilots to fly the aircraft.

Zelenskyy said Russia must abandon its “nuclear blackmail of the world.”

“It wouldn’t be fair to compare, but I would tell you sincerely that the pictures of Hiroshima in ruins reminded me of Bakhmut and other similar towns and settlements in Ukraine. They are also totally destroyed. There’s nothing there,” Zelenskyy said at a news conference after the meeting ended.

“The international community stands at a turning point in history, witnessing Russia's desire to unilaterally change the status quo by force,” Kishida said in summit closing remarks on May 21.

“The threat, much less the use, of nuclear weapons to change the status quo by force is not acceptable,” he added.

Despite the powerful symbol of meeting at Hiroshima, the Group of Seven leaders failed to advance major new proposals designed to reverse rising nuclear weapons dangers.

At Hiroshima, Leaders Should Choose to End All Nuclear Threats

At a meeting of the G7 nations this week in Hiroshima, the first city destroyed by the bomb, President Joe Biden and other leaders have a chance to begin addressing the long-standing problem of states threatening to use nuclear weapons. Russia’s nuclear threats of the past year in support of its invasion of Ukraine have flashed for all to see a core purpose of nuclear arsenals: coercion and intimidation. At this historic gathering, Biden and his counterparts need to act on Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s proposal that the G7 “demonstrate a firm commitment to absolutely reject the...

White House National Security Advisor to Address ACA In Wake of Hiroshima Summit

Inside the Arms Control Association May 2023 We are honored to have President Joe Biden's National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan , delivering the keynote address at our Annual Meeting, “ Reducing Nuclear Threats in a Time of Peril, ” on June 2, 2023, at 9:00 am, at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. As President Biden wrote in his message to ACA at last year’s ACA annual meeting: “Today—perhaps more than any other time since the Cold War—we must work to reduce the risk of an arms race or nuclear escalation. In this time of intense geopolitical tension, arms control and...

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to Speak at Arms Control Association Annual Meeting on June 2

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For Immediate Release: May 8, 2023

Media Contacts: Daryl G. Kimball, executive director, 202-463-8270 ext 107; Tony Fleming, director for communications, 202-463-8270 ext 110.

(Washington, D.C.)--White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will deliver the address at the Arms Control Association's Annual Meeting, “Reducing Nuclear Threats in a Time of Peril,” on June 2, 2023 at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C.

Sullivan will detail the President’s vision  for heading off nuclear weapons competition, advancing nuclear arms control and nonproliferation measures, and reducing the risk of nuclear use. His remarks will come shortly after the Summit of G-7 Leaders on May 19-21 in Hiroshima, Japan, the target of the first atomic bombing.

The nonpartisan Arms Control Association promotes effective arms control policies and supports international efforts to reduce and eliminate the threat posed by the world’s most dangerous weapons. The organization has been at the forefront of efforts to promote nuclear arms control and disarmament for over 50 years.

"We are honored to have National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan deliver keynote remarks on the Biden administration’s vision for reducing nuclear weapons dangers at this pivotal time," said Daryl G. Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association. 

As President Biden wrote in his message to ACA at last year’s annual meeting,“Today—perhaps more than any other time since the Cold War—we must work to reduce the risk of an arms race or nuclear escalation. In this time of intense geopolitical tension, arms control and nonproliferation diplomacy continues to be an essential part of safeguarding … global security."

The June 2 event, which will run from 9am to 4pm, will also feature expert panel discussions on reinforcing the taboo against threats of nuclear use, preventing a three-way arms race,  the Iranian nuclear crisis, and the risks of artificial intelligence involvement in nuclear command and control. Our other keynote speaker is Ambassador Alexander Kmentt, one of the key architects of the 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.

Registration for the event is open to the public through the Arms Control Association's website

Members of the press may request complimentary registration

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Sullivan will detail the President’s vision  for heading off nuclear weapons competition, advancing nuclear arms control and nonproliferation measures, and reducing the risk of nuclear use.  His keynote remarks come shortly after the May 19-21 Summit of G-7 Leaders in Hiroshima, Japan, the site of the first atomic bombing.

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