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"Though we have acheived progress, our work is not over. That is why I support the mission of the Arms Control Association. It is, quite simply, the most effective and important organization working in the field today." 

– Larry Weiler
Former U.S.-Russian arms control negotiator
August 7, 2018
May 2023
Edition Date: 
Monday, May 1, 2023
Cover Image: 

IAEA Shifts Priorities for Zaporizhzhia


May 2023
By Kelsey Davenport

After months of negotiations with Russia and Ukraine to establish a protection zone around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said he is now focused on reaching a narrower agreement to protect certain areas of the facility that pose a greater risk.

Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), visited the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in southern Ukraine on March 29, and later said he is focused on reaching a narrower agreement with Russia to protect the embattled facility. (Photo by Andrey Borodulin/AFP via Getty Images)IAEA Director-General Rafael Mariano Grossi announced the shift in the agency’s priorities after visiting Zaporizhzhia on March 29 and observing the buildup of military forces in the area. In a March 30 statement, the IAEA said Grossi’s proposal evolved from creating a territorial zone around the plant to reaching an agreement on “what should be avoided” at the facility to ensure protection of the six-reactor Zaporizhzhia plant during conflict. Prior to the visit, Grossi told Associated Press in a March 28 interview that negotiations on establishing the zone were being “affected by the ongoing military options.”

Russia has illegally occupied the Zaporizhzhia plant since February 2022, but the facility is still operated by Ukrainian personnel. (See ACT, April 2022.) Moscow and Kyiv professed support for Grossi’s initial plan to establish a protection zone, but officials on both sides expressed doubt about the feasibility of establishing it. (See ACT, March 2023.)

Grossi emphasized in the March 28 interview that his approach is focused on “a series of principle[s] or commitments [that] everybody would be able to support.” He said that if Russia and Ukraine make a political commitment to protect Zaporizhzhia, it will be an agreement with the IAEA and they “are not agreeing with each other.” He characterized the nature of the agreement as “a very important element” that Russia and Ukraine should take into consideration.

In the March 30 statement, Grossi emphasized the urgency of reaching an agreement. He said it is “obvious that military activity is increasing” in the Zaporizhzhia region and that the “area is facing perhaps a more dangerous phase in terms of the ongoing conflict.” He said it is “very, very important that we agree on the fundamental principle that a nuclear plant should not be attacked.”

Prior to visiting the Zaporizhzhia plant, Grossi met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and said on March 27 that they had a “rich exchange” regarding the protection of the facility and its staff. Grossi said his trip was also focused on ensuring that IAEA personnel stationed at the facility since September can rotate in on a regular basis after a delay in February prevented a new agency team from entering the facility for nearly a month.

A Russian military truck is seen on the grounds of the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in southern Ukraine on March 29. (Photo by Andrey Borodulin/AFP via Getty Images)Following his visit, Grossi met on April 5 in Kaliningrad with Russian officials, including Alexey Likhachev, director-general of the Russian nuclear energy company Rosatom. Although Ukrainian staff still run the Zaporizhzhia plant, Rosatom has stationed some of its personnel at the facility.

In an April 5 statement, Likhachev said he told Grossi about steps that Rosatom has taken to “ensure the safe operation” of Zaporizhzhia, including stationing new diesel generators at the facility.

The Zaporizhzhia plant has relied on generators six times over the past 13 months when power to the facility was disrupted, including after a March attack that severed power lines. Reliable external power sources are necessary to continue cooling the shuttered nuclear reactor units at the site.

Likhachev also reiterated Russian willingness to work with the IAEA to protect the nuclear facility.

Grossi said in an April 5 statement that he will continue his efforts to protect the Zaporizhzhia plant and reiterated the “urgent need to achieve this vital objective.”

In addition to the risk posed by power disruptions, Ukrainian officials are now raising concerns that Russia’s decision to drain water from the Kakhovka reservoir could make it more difficult to cool the reactor units at Zaporizhzhia. The reactor requires external water sources for cooling to prevent a meltdown.

According to Energoatom, the Ukrainian nuclear energy company, the level of the reservoir is typically around 16 meters, but the drainage dropped the levels to 13.8 meters in February. A fall to 12.8 meters would qualify as an emergency, according to Petro Kotin, the head of Energoatom.

Ihor Syrota, director general of the Ukrainian state-run hydropower company Ukrhydroenergo, told Reuters in a March 27 interview that there is no immediate risk and that thawing snow is helping raise the reservoir levels again.

But he warned of a water shortage later this summer if Russia continues to discharge water from the reservoir.

 

After months of negotiations with Russia and Ukraine to establish a protection zone around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the head of the IAEA is now focused on reaching a narrower agreement to protect certain areas of the facility that pose a greater risk.  

Russian ICBM Test Raises Questions for Kazakhstan


May 2023
By Gabriela Iveliz Rosa Hernández

Russia’s launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) from its territory to a test site in Kazakhstan has raised questions about Kazakhstan’s compliance with a 2017 treaty banning nuclear weapons.

After the Russians tested an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that landed at a test site in Kazakhstan on April 11, the U.S. Air Force released pictures that it says shows service members aboard an E-6B Mercury 'doomsday plane' initiating the test launch of an unarmed LGM-30G Minuteman III ICBM on April 19. (U.S. Air Force photo)Kazakhstan, a leader on disarmament and nonproliferation issues, ratified the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) in 2019. But the Russian Defense Ministry announced the launch on April 11 of a missile whose training warhead reached the designated target at the Sary-Shagan test site, which is leased by Russia from Kazakhstan.

“This [missile] launch made it possible to confirm the correctness of the circuit design and technical solutions used in the development of new strategic missile systems,” the ministry reported in a statement.

It was the first time since 2019 that Russia has used the site to test ICBMs.

The TPNW, which entered into force in January 2021, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal of their total elimination.

It bars states-parties from assisting anyone in anyway in a prohibited activity. Specifically, the treaty says states-parties promise to “never under any circumstances...assist, encourage or induce, in any way, anyone to engage in any activity prohibited to a state-party under this treaty.” In addition, they forswear to “allow any stationing, installation or deployment of any nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices in its territory or at any place under its jurisdiction or control.”

The Nuclear Weapon Ban Monitor, a watchdog group, noted on April 12 that Kazakhstan’s actions were not consistent with the TPNW. “This is no doubt a difficult situation for Kazakhstan, but it is also an opportunity to demonstrate the significance of the TPNW. As a state committed to the goals of the TPNW and the Central Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty, Kazakhstan should communicate its priorities to Russia and request that it refrains from all testing of nuclear-capable missiles at Sary-Shagan,” according to a group statement.

Meanwhile, Pavel Podvig, an expert on Russian strategic nuclear forces, said in an April 12 tweet that the missile launch “was an important test for the TPNW and…not an easy one.”

“Sary-Shagan is largely a missile defense site [that] was used by the Soviet Union to test various defense-related systems—radars and interceptors in particular [and]…one can argue that missile defense may be TPNW-compliant.”

But he added that the “situation with the Kapustin Yar [Russian test site] to Sary-Shagan launches is a bit different. These are tests of ICBMs.… ICBMs are very much dedicated nuclear weapon delivery systems.”

Kazakhstan insisted that it remained in full compliance with the TPNW.

“Taking into account that no nuclear weapons or nuclear explosive devices (or their indivisible parts) are being in any way placed, tested, or utilized on the territory of Kazakhstan (including at certain military facilities rented to third parties in accordance with existing international agreements), Kazakhstan remains in full compliance with its obligations under the TPNW,” the Kazakh embassy in Brussels wrote on April 12 when asked by EURACTIV whether the missile test constituted a breach of the TPNW.

The Kazakh-Russian leasing agreement for the test site states that “nuclear and chemical weapons” are prohibited on the test site.

The agreement was last amended in 2015 and is automatically renewed every 10 years unless one party notifies the other party in writing at least six months prior to the expiration of the agreement.

Last December, the Russian Strategic Forces announced that it planned to carry out eight launches of ICBMs in 2023, from the Plesetsk cosmodrome and from the 4th State Central Interspecific Test Site Kapustin Yar.

According to the leasing agreement, Kazakhstan and Russia agree on annual plans for research, tactical exercises with live-fire missile launches, the maintenance and repair of weapons and military equipment, and schedules for testing.

Russia’s launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) from its territory to a test site in Kazakhstan has raised questions about Kazakhstan’s compliance with a 2017 treaty banning nuclear weapons.  

G-7 Expected to Focus on Nuclear Dangers in Hiroshima


May 2023
By Daryl G. Kimball

The leaders of the Group of Seven (G-7) industrialized nations, who will convene this month in Hiroshima, the city destroyed in 1945 by the world’s first nuclear attack, are expected to emphasize measures to address rising nuclear dangers.

Paper lanterns float on the Motoyasu River as The Atomic Bomb Dome looms in the background at the peace park in Hiroshima, Japan, which commemorates the first use of a nuclear weapon in armed conflict. Some 90,000 to 146,000 people were killed in the 1945 bombing and the entire city was destroyed. G-7 leaders will meet in Hiroshima this month. (Photo by Yuichi Yamazaki/Getty Images)Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who will preside over the summit, chose Hiroshima as the venue “to deepen discussions so that we can release a strong message toward realizing a world free of nuclear weapons.” In response to concerns that Russia might use nuclear weapons in its war in Ukraine, Kishida also said on Jan. 9 that the G-7 needs to “demonstrate a firm commitment to absolutely reject the threat or use of nuclear weapons.”

By the end of 1945, an estimated 215,000 people had died from the Aug. 6 and 9 atomic bomb attacks by the United States on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and many more have suffered since then from the long-term health effects of radiation exposure.

U.S. President Joe Biden will join the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the European Union at the May 19–21 meeting.

In 2016, U.S. President Barack Obama delivered an address at Hiroshima’s Peace Memorial Park and visited the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Museum. He was escorted by Kishida, who was Japan’s foreign minister at the time and who is from Hiroshima.

According to The Japan Times, the Japanese government is arranging for a meeting between the G-7 leaders and some of the remaining hibakusha, the survivors of the atomic bomb attacks, during a visit to the peace museum on May 19.

In February, Hiroshima Mayor Kazumi Matsui and Nagasaki Mayor Tomihisa Taue met with Kishida and proposed that the government arrange a visit by the G-7 leaders to the museum and a dialogue with atomic bombing survivors.

Kishida also met representatives from the “Civil 7” group of nongovernmental organizations from 72 countries on April 13 to hear their recommendations on how the G-7 leaders could advance progress on nuclear risk reduction and nuclear disarmament. Among other measures, the civil society group recommended that G-7 leaders meet atomic bombing survivors, unequivocally condemn threats to use nuclear weapons, and endorse urgent negotiations to achieve the complete elimination of nuclear weapons before 2045.

In a statement from the G-7 nonproliferation directors group issued April 17, the governments noted that Hiroshima and Nagasaki “offer a reminder of the unprecedented devastation and immense human suffering the people of Hiroshima and Nagasaki experienced as a result of the atomic bombings of 1945.”

The statement, which may preview a possible G-7 leaders’ statement on nuclear weapons, does not condemn unequivocally all forms of nuclear threats. Instead, it recalls the joint statement from January 2022 by the leaders of the five nuclear-armed states under the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, including Russia, that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.” The nonproliferation director’s statement also asserts that, unlike Russia, G-7 security policies “are based on the understanding that nuclear weapons, for as long as they exist, should serve defensive purposes, deter aggression, and prevent war and coercion.”

During the 2020 presidential campaign, Biden issued a statement on the 75th anniversary of the atomic bombings, saying, “As president, I will restore American leadership on arms control and nonproliferation as a central pillar of U.S. global leadership.” He added, “I will work to bring us closer to a world without nuclear weapons, so that the horrors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki are never repeated.”

The leaders of the G-7 group of industrialized nations, set to convene this month in Hiroshima, are expected to emphasize measures to address rising nuclear dangers.

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